How could I have missed this? We have to do the poll again, but this time it will contain the man who is now the most likely candidate. I hope this posts before he's gone.
Once Mubarak finally excused himself, I tried to figure out which onerous oligarch would be removed from power next. I overlooked Libya's strongman, Mu'ammar al-Qaddafi, because his capacity for ruthless repression seemed to immunize him for the moment. (I spell it "Qaddafi" because that's closest to the Arabic spelling.) I thought that fear was still strong enough in Libya that no one would stand up and tell that paranoid schizophrenic that he was done. That was a gross miscalculation. As it turns out, you can kill a few hundred protesters, but they just keep coming. I forgot about that peculiar trait among oppressed people where they reach a tipping point and a good number of them decide that they would rather die on their feet than continue to live on their knees.
All the signs are there now that Qaddafi is dead meat and won't last very long. The kicker for me is that he has already panicked and ordered troops to fire on unarmed protesters. It's become axiomatic now that killing your own people en masse means the end is near. Deadly violence is the trump card and a last resort. If it doesn't work, then there is nothing left to do but flee or die. They've killed several hundred already, but some troops are already beginning to defect to the opposition, which means that there probably won't be very many more people killed. This also means that the protesters will grow increasingly bolder and will soon turn the tide. There are reports of soldiers breaking ranks and joining the rebellion. The rebels have weapons and vehicles taken from police who didn't want to die. The guards on the Egyptian border have abandoned their posts. Yesterday, two fighter pilots were ordered to strafe and bomb the mobs in the streets, but they flew to Malta instead and requested asylum. They will return as heroes soon, and will probably be featured in a big parade. I'm thinking that this will take two to three weeks now, but it's still hard to tell.
Let's talk about Qaddafi's end game. He has vowed to "fight to the last bullet", but I'm nearly certain that it won't come to that. As Saddam Hussein did when we flattened Iraq, Qaddafi will try to save himself after his son and heir apparent is killed or flees. If the son, Muhammad, is smart, he'll skedaddle when it's clear that the regime is doomed. If he does put up a fight using loyal army troops, the fighting will continue only until rebels and mutinous troops kill or capture the dictator-in-waiting. Once he knows that he will never run the country, he'll try to stay alive. I guarantee that. Uday and Qusay Hussein fought to the death only because they were well known as rapists, torturers and murderers. They knew they would be killed when captured, so they had nothing to lose. The eldest Qaddafi boy doesn't have such a reputation, so he probably thinks he can retain some of his position after his father's demise or removal. Do you remember jazz pianist Romano Mussolini? Sons of dictators don't have to go out in a blaze of glory, even if their old man did.
Mu'ammar himself will not fight to the death. That's absurd and everyone knows it. I'm banking that he won't because all ruthless dictators are, at heart, cowards. They order others to kill, but rarely have the guts to do it themselves. When cornered, they whine and grovel like little girls. Saddam Hussein was an exception. He shot a guy to death in his office once and died bravely, defiant to the end. Qaddafi isn't a tough guy like that. If he's captured alive, he'll whimper like an abandoned puppy at an animal shelter. There is good reason to predict such behavior, mainly the extensively documented aspects of his quirky, chickenshit mind set.
We know that fear is the cornerstone of Qaddafi's psyche. He doesn't like to fly over water and likes to stay on the ground floor of buildings. He wears lots of kevlar under those flowing robes. His hat is a helmet. (Diane Sawyer said that after interviewing him.) The swaths of cloth wrapping his body go high up his neck. We almost got him in 1986 and he hasn't forgotten that. He's terrified. This guy will not shoot it out like Wyatt Earp at the O.K. Corral. Nope. Not going to happen.
One of the most telling aspects of Qaddafi's essential weakness is the way that his personal bodyguards, all virgins, and the nurse that is always with him, are all women. Get it? He can't stand to have any men around him because he can't lord it over anyone with balls, quite literally. I've pondered this curiosity at length and have concluded that excluding himself from male company means that he is actually afraid of other men. This guy will not fight. He's a weenie.
Not being able to fight doesn't mean that he is unwilling to die. My best guess is that the nurse's main job is to administer a lethal injection when he knows the jig is up. I think he'll go out by suicide, like Adolf Hitler, Jim Jones and David Koresh , rather than submit to being degraded in public. Only by killing himself will he be able to make good on his promise not to flee, but still elude being held accountable to the Libyan people. He's delusional, wanting to believe that he is beloved and respected, but deep down he knows the truth. Exile is unacceptable because he would have to endure the ignominy of being accused and convicted in absentia of his many crimes. He would rather die than have to bear that. The nurse will make it possible because this gutless twerp could not blow his own brains out or jab a spike into his own arm. As Jones and Koresh did, he could have one of the Amazons plug him, but the nurse must be there for a reason, so I think she will be the one to dispatch Qaddafi. Perhaps she will cradle him in her strong Ukrainian arms, let down her long, blond hair, tenderly remove the helmet/hat for the last time, skillfully slide the point of the syringe into his vein, inject the deadly fluid, and lovingly cradle his curly head against her heaving, buxom bosom as he slips off to paradise. He's heard about the 72 virgins for each martyr and fancies himself one of these. It's a touching tableau, is it not? Enough of that. Suffice it to say that I predict that Qaddafi will die in Libya, just as he asserts.
So, what's the deal with the pistol-packing virgins, the Amazonian Guard? This is the best example of how nuts Mu'ammar has got to be. Why would he think that Charlie's Angels would be able to protect him better than well-trained professionals, regardless of gender? I can't fathom it other than fear of male competition. As an absolute dictator, he can order regular troops to fire on the people, so what's the purpose of a personal corps of female bodyguards? Our president has the Secret Service, so having such people protecting him is consistent with the idea of his being an important world leader. These protectors insulate him from assassins working alone or in small groups. That makes sense. But why only women?
We're getting into wild speculation now. I think that the vestal virgins are a prop in Mu'ammar's personal apocalyptic vision of a heroic death. They exist purely for the aesthetic purpose of shepherding him through Götterdämmerung in style. Such spotless handmaidens are just the ticket to act as acolytes for Qaddafi's ascension. I know it sounds far-fetched, but you've got to admit that it makes more sense that way.
I have some predictions about the girls in the tailored spandex uniforms. They will not fight to the death when it's hopeless or Qaddafi is already dead. Maybe they have sworn to die with Qaddafi, and maybe some of them will. If he's barricaded in his inner sanctum and the officer in the tank with the bullhorn promises them that they won't be harmed, expect most of them to try to get out. The first one to try will be shot dead by a hard core fanatic, probably the leader, just before she herself is perforated by everyone else. Then, the rest of them will come out with their hands up. Either that, or all of them will surrender peacefully as soon as they hear that the nurse has offed helmet boy. She will probably come out and calmly tell the bodyguards that he's dead and that there's no point in further violence. In any event, expect an anticlimactic last stand for Qaddafi. I think he will choose to die, but not too many will follow him.
So, let's try this poll again, but this time we'll include the most likely candidate for oblivion. I made the mistake last time of adding the poll later after most people were done reading the post. Never again.