Why does this matter? Isn't everything just fine in Puerto Rico just the way it is? No. Puerto Ricans want change. They're just not sure what form it should take.
The status quo
Natives of Puerto Rico are U.S. citizens by birth. Puerto Ricans who live in U.S. states can register to vote, and vote, wherever they live. More people of Puerto Rican origin (4,600,000 or so) live in the fifty states than remain in Puerto Rico (3,700,000 or so). However, being a U.S. citizen and a resident of Puerto Rico, regardless of where you were born, means that you are disenfranchised. You cannot vote in federal elections.
This is weird. It doesn't make any sense and nearly everyone agrees that it is unfair. There were two remedies and a palliative on the ballot on election day. Puerto Rico could sue for statehood, become an independently sovereign nation or redefine their status as a "freely associated state", whatever that is, which seems to be pretty much what they are now, but sounds a little more independent. (The choice was a second measure following one about whether or not to keep things the way they are.) Independence is the choice of those who despise the United States and want out. Statehood is the choice of those who like being citizens and want to participate fully in the nation's affairs. The third thing is a sop for those who want something different, but don't give a hoot about national pride one way or the other and want to keep some ties to the United States for reasons that seem to hinge on economic advantage.
It's those money-grubbing weasels in the middle who are causing all the trouble. The vote last Tuesday showed that things haven't changed much in the last 50 years or so. I remember hearing as a child that the most popular choice for the future of Puerto Rico was to remain a commonwealth, i.e., not to become a state or an independent nation. They vote on it every few years and that's always the top choice. Sentiment ebbs and flows toward and away from statehood and independence, but roughly half (45% this time) of Puerto Ricans always seem to want everything to stay as it is. There does not need to be a single reason that more puertorriqueños would prefer to remain in political limbo as a vassal state, essentially a colony, rather than become an integral part of the United States or break away entirely. If all the small reasons taken together make up a critical mass, inertia will continue to hold sway.
This is obvious if you consider the three-way stalemate from the point of view those who don't want to remain a territory. The separtists have been trying since Puerto Rico was ceded to the U.S. by Spain to whip up nationalist fervor. They just can't get up enough steam because not enough people care that much. In their day-to-day lives, their lot as a subject people isn't all that bad. As exploiting colonial imperialists go, the U.S.A. is pretty benign. After more than a century of being under the wing (and the boot?) of Uncle Sam, the idea of going it alone is a little scary.
The statehood activists have an equally tough row to hoe. What's the big advantage of statehood? No one seems to have identified how that would better people's lives in a practical manner. A lack of enthusiasm for change is the result of a vacuum. Without strong ideological impetus, ambivalence and maintaing the status quo becomes the more "sensible" stances.
Economics is the key dynamic here and always has been. Those who want to remain in that strange limbo between independence and statehood like the idea that the federal government pours a lot more into the island in benefits than it pulls out in taxes. They like it that, because they are not a state, they don't get dinged as heavily in many ways. None of the taxing and economic rules for states apply; all such laws that govern the island are custom tailored for it by Congress or by the commonwealth's own legislature. Perhaps the big money people like the idea of influencing laws and regulations more easily. If they were a state, they would be the poorest per capita, by far. So, why should they want that? Being exempt from minimum wage laws and many labor laws, perhaps? There is no obvious advantage or disadvantage to the people to being the poorest state, though. How does that affect Mississippi's view of statehood? Who knows?
There also may be hesitancy by many to become the only predominantly Spanish-speaking state. Perhaps they fear being stripped of their Hispanic heritage by overbearing English-speaking monophones forcing them to adopt English as their official language. This is even more of a big deal in Puerto Rico than it is in states with large Spanish-speaking populations. Regardless of how taxation and language policy would work out for Puerto Rico as a state, anxiety over these issues might be big reasons for the inertia we see.
There are lots of theories. I just read an article in the Huffington Post giving their five reasons why Puerto Rico probably won't become the 51st state. The piece is an analysis the advisory vote on statehood Puerto Rican voters had on their ballot on November 6 instead voting to fill the offices of President and Vice President of the United States and seats in the 113th Congress.
Here's a synopsis of what HuffPost thinks are the big impediments.
- A majority didn't support statehood
Statehood doesn't have the support of the majority of the Puerto Rican electorate. Statehood was pulled a majority (65%) of those who voted on the issue, but that option was indicated on only 45% of the ballots cast. While 53% asserted that they did not want to retain their staus as a territory, over 470,000 voters didn't state a preference on statehood, independence or being a freely independent state with close ties to the U.S.A. There is no consensus.
- Luis Fortuño's gone
Puerto Rican voters voted to oust the sitting governor who is a champion of statehood. The new guy, Alejandro Garcia Padilla of the Popular Democratic Party, is not.
- Obama isn't into it
Obama said last year that he would back "a strong preference from the majority of the Puerto Rican people". The fact that 55% of the puertorriqueños who voted didn't opt for statehood means that he's not going to push it.
- Puerto Ricans are already citizens
If Puerto Rico residents want to vote in federal elections, all they have to do is move to a real state.
- Congress isn't interested
Congress won't bother with legislation to initiate the process to bring Puerto Rico into the union as a state because the vote wasn't convincing enough.
While the sources quoted by the Huffington Post are all credible and their reasoning makes sense, I don't think that this is what's really going on here. Here's my list of reasons why Puerto Rico won't become a state or an independent nation any time soon.
- Big money doesn't have any reason to change things
Like it or not, corporate interests are doing just fine as things are. They often get tax breaks from the federal government for promoting industry. They can pay workers less than in real states because the people are poorer, more like the people on other Caribbean islands than the people on the mainland. Even if the ambiguous status of the island doesn't give corporations more leverage than it would in the states, it doesn't give them any less. If there's not a clear incentive for them to do so, they are not going to back any effort to change things.
- Independence freaks out the elite
A lot of, if not all, separatists are leftists. If they came to power, they would curtail or severely restrict the activities of capitalists. Greedy corporate interests are terrified of this prospect and when they take a stand on Puerto Rico's future, it's invariably to stifle the independence movement. They want no part of a government that might be headed by someone like Venezuela's Hugo Chávez. A populist, nationalist leader might take away a lot of the assests and, worse yet, wrest their grip on the reins of power. It's no mystery why separtists are branded as a bunch of nutball commie rabble rousers by all other parties. They are scared to death that the Red Guard will murder them in their beds, or at least that's the image the rich are trying to project. People who want independence aren't all crazy socialists, but the power elite would have you think so.
- Independence freaks out the warmongers
Foreign policy wonks are obsessed by the need for global domination. Any reduction in the power and influence of the United States is seen as a strategic setback that can only endanger us. If they had their way, we would hold sway over everyone on Earth. They refuse to consider the possibility that there might be an up side to there being another independent nation in the Caribbean.
- Statehood freaks out the Republicans
Puerto Ricans speak Spanish. Republicans have abandoned the Spanish-speaking minority in this country. Puerto Rico would send more Democrats to Washington D.C. and add another blue state. There's no advantage to them in statehood for Puerto Rico, so they will ignore, stall or even block such an effort to the extent they can. They will probably not actively argue against it, though, because that would appear churlish and despicable, which it is, and what they are.
- Statehood freaks out the racists
Them Porto Reekans speak Spanish, not English, and they have brown skin. 'Nuff said.
- Change freaks out those who don't think things through
Anyone outside of Puerto Rico who worries about terrible consequences if Puerto Rico chooses either statehood or independence just isn't being rational. If it's what the people want, then it's their right to choose, not ours to impose. Arguments against either alternative are mostly hysteria. It's not going to affect you much in Oregon, Kansas, or even Florida. So, what's your problem with letting them do whatever they want? (It's like, you know, marriage equality!)
Synthesis
There are no compelling reasons for anyone except corporate oligarchs to retain Puerto Rico as a territory. The people of that island should opt to be proud citizens of a sovereign nation, either the United States of America or the Republic of Puerto Rico. Offering them additional options is just quibbling. Self-determination is a right of any people, but it is also an obligation. If U.S. citizens outside of Puerto Rico want to exhort Puerto Ricans to take any course of action, it ought to be to have a vote on that issue with only two options, statehood or independence. Such a referendum is the only way to force the issue to a head and break the commonwealth/territory deadlock. As long as they have the option of doing nothing, they probably won't.
President Obama has shown prudent, thoughtful leadership in this matter. He has not taken a side and says that he will support the wishes of the people of Puerto Rico. Let's back him in doing that. If anyone starts ranting that we, as a nation, should apply pressure to the people of Puerto Rico to do one thing or the other, you've got to ask yourself what's in it for him or her.
Let's be civilized and wish them well if they want to go their own way, or welcome them as brothers and sisters if they want to contribute to the diversity of our nation. I served in the military with many Puerto Ricans during the Vietnam War. They were loyal Americans who did their duty with honor and sometimes distinction. Puerto Ricans certainly deserve self-determination as a human right, though, regardless of whether or not they served in the nation. It's called "freedom".